Cavs show no signs of fight. Blowout was predictable. Well, this was predictable. As I said in my last blog that no one read, the Cavaliers would be blown out by 20 plus if they played as poorly as they did against the Bulls. I would like nothing better than write feel good blogs about how much I love the Cavs game. I do love the Cavs but do not love the Cavs game. Their offense is stagnant and void of flow and principles. Whenever they did anything right (such as the rare back door cuts), it worked. But those things are just too rare. They don’t play offense fast and move half speed but then make hurried ill advised passes to overplayed teammates. I don’t agree with Austin Carr at all that this is simply getting used to a system. This is an inability to play in a system. I only say that because the team looked exactly the same under Byron Scott as they do under Mike Brown. I want them to prove me wrong but I see no signs of it yet.
When we let up well over 100 points by the end of the third quarter, you might wonder why I have been complaining about the offense. I fully admit that the most important thing for the Cavs is to play solid defense. The Cavs score enough points to win most nights. The problem is that the poor offensive flow, resulting in terrible shots or awful passes, leads to run outs and easy fast break points. This results in a very high opponent shooting percentage and many more easy baskets. This creates more total offensive chances for the opponent that inevitably ends up in far too many points allowed. If every team laid back and allowed us to “run” an offense in slow motion and then didn’t run, the Cavs defense would match up much better in any game. Our half court defense is not as terrible as the overall defensive numbers suggest IMO. It certainly isn’t very good yet but that is a place I am confident will come around with Mike Brown’s system over time. As long as Kyrie gives maximum effort as I have said, I think our defense will be acceptable.
The other key factor is a lack of focus and effort when things are not going well. That also creates the possibility of terrible blowouts like tonight. In this game, once their offense was stagnant and lacked flow and Minnesota had fast break point after fast break point, they had no fight left. This allowed the porous half court defense to reveal itself. Kyrie actually tried to pick up the effort on both ends of the court but it was not enough to overcome this onslaught.
I saw little to like in this game and, except for a look at Karasev, not much worth watching. It was an embarrassment for sure and a terrible example of basketball. I wish I could be more optimistic and I am sure I will be later in the year. But for now, Cavs are on a rocket path back to the lottery and that is not what I expected or wanted.
Cavs showed little signs of progress against the Bulls
In a game billed as Kyrie vs Rose, there was nothing more than a skirmish between the big 2 and a sloppy game around them. Kyrie again appeared uninspired and did not work hard enough on the defensive end to bother Rose. Luckily, Rose is not exactly Rose yet so the final stats did not clearly define Kyrie’s lackluster effort. As often happens, when a few shots fall in the fourth quarter he made a more clear effort to defend and the entire team put some temporary pressure on the Bulls. It was during that time that, if the offense had any flow at all, the Cavs might have broken through and taken control of the game. But the resistance was short lived and the results predictable. The Bulls pulled away in the closing minutes and another road “L” was the result.
I don’t feel the entire game was worthless because the Cavs got some valuable “practice time” with Andrew Bynum in the starting lineup for the first time this year. It is obvious that the Cavs do not yet know how to play with a post player and Bynum has only a little feel for the players around him. If that was the biggest negative about this game, it wouldn’t be a negative. It is expected and will take time. But I saw flashes of what Bynum can mean to an offense once he gets comfortable.
There were some decent individual efforts by TT and Waiters, who both played defense more aggressively than most of the rest of the team. Andy gave good effort as did Bynum to be honest. Both were chasing some guards on the top when they had to from switching. There was not much else to cheer about in the Bulls game. I was happy the Cavs kept it close until about 5 minutes left, but I am not sure if that was a function of the Bulls or the Cavs. The Bulls obviously have some catching up to do with Rose back on the court. They will be better going forward for sure.
Here is the surprising thing about what I saw tonight. If the Cavs play with this same intensity against the TWolves, they will lose by 20+ points in a blowout. I am not looking forward to that so I will remain confident that the Cavs will find a way to dig in and play hard.
The Cavs are still in trouble!!! I’ll be watching for signs of life going forward. I love this team and believe they can find a way to overcome this if Kyrie leads the defense forward.
They can overcome their troubles but it needs to start now Notwithstanding the exciting overtime win against a team thought to be “tanking”, the Cavaliers have shown many of the same disturbing tendencies that we have seen during three mega loss seasons. The inexcusable trend continues to be a monumental lack of effort for 48 minutes. This now spans over a coaching change and multiple drafts with high draft picks. That does not mean I am overreacting to a few losses or believing the Cavs season is going into the toilet because of a 3-4 start. What I see is an ongoing trend that must end or the Cavs will not have Kyrie Irving or a winning team at all in several years. The time to send out the “all hands on deck” call is now instead of waiting until very little can be done to salvage the season and the Cavs future.
Am I being melodramatic about placing the entire Cavs future at stake here? I don’t believe I am and have a large sample size and an ability to read the body language of the players to support that contention. The reason why this is so critical and pivotal all revolves around the same thing that drives the entire NBA, star power. Kyrie Irving, despite his current faults as a player, is a developing star in the NBA. His visibility is rising and his importance to the Cavalier’s future is increasing as well.
One of the big things that happened to the last star that left is a development of a beaten attitude when his team blew opportunities in the playoffs that he viewed as his “birthright” to reach his championship destiny. As often happens when your view of the world is distorted by your own success, his belief was that this was the fault of everyone else around him from coaches to teammates and even his “posse”. That leads to a lack of effort and a beaten attitude, as was clearly evident near the end.
Kyrie, in a very different and possibly worse scenario, has shown signs of the same failings as his star predecessor. That is the irony of this entire situation. Since the major failure of the Cavs is a lack of consistent effort, especially on the defensive end, it will take the star to lead the team out of that. The team will follow in my opinion, but Kyrie must lead. The coach obviously can’t do it. Byron Scott marveled at the way effort varied despite the fact that he knew it was the only thing that wasn’t dependent on one’s talent. He felt that everyone could give effort and he couldn’t understand why they wouldn’t. Well Mike Brown, welcome to Byron Scott’s world.
The previous star never realized that if he dominated defensively and drove to the basket consistently to make his points and assists, he would have gotten what he wanted even in Cleveland. The current star has, in my opinion, a developing superior supporting cast but still doesn’t put forth the consistent effort needed to lead the defensive charge and offensive movement and consistency. He is prone to the same ball dominating approach on offense and his own unique varying intensity on defense.
That is not to say that the Cavs lack of success is all on Kyrie. Without Kyrie, we would have lost many games that we eventually won. But I believe the Cavs ultimate success IS on Kyrie. If he takes the lead and demonstrates consistent defensive effort and demands offensive flow and movement, the Cavs will be successful. They will make the playoffs and be a dangerous team when they get there. If he still looks to his teammates to lead the way, the Cavs are destined for a thunderous thud back in the lottery. I believe the time is now to get this done. If we wait to address the obvious later, it will be too late.
I have confidence that Kyrie and Mike Brown can make it happen but I will be looking for signs soon. I am hoping that playing hard for two overtimes and winning will help Kyrie and the team understand that they CAN put forth that effort for a regulation game. I’ll let you know if I see the transformation.
I appreciate your reading this in it’s entirety. Nice of you to agree to do that. Now I am very aware of your immense IQ and the fact your ego demands that I acknowledge you know more football in the tip of your little finger than I know in my whole body. I know that I am simply a “fan” and can’t possibly fathom the depth of thought used by yourself and Lombardi to make decisions. But, as a season ticket holder, I do have a vested interest in your decisions and what effect they have on my family, friends and wallet. I know this is hard to accept for someone as superior as yourself but fans are necessary to the success of the NFL. If you don’t have fans, you don’t have a team or a league. So maybe you can agree that we are not completely meaningless slugs, just nearly meaningless.
As a fan and season ticket holder, I would like to hear the complete truth instead of just the truth you want to spew to the media and fans. So, for the sake of clarity, let me read this thing back to you. Correct me where I am wrong. First, you sold Jimmy Haslim on yourself by professing how you would build this awesome team better than anyone else could. Even though you were let go in Philadelphia because you had no reasonable experience in player acquisition and team building. After that you brought in one of the most infamous front office personalities from Cleveland’s past and asked us all to just “get along” and let the past be in the past. You knew how brilliant he was even though we were skeptical.
Once you had your team assembled you analyzed the players and developed your plan. You decided the Browns had no quarterback. You decided the Browns had a running back that was good but we had severely overpaid (in draft picks) and he didn’t exactly fit your image of a dynamic back. You knew the offense needed playmakers but you decided not to add any because you didn’t have a quarterback. Plus, if you didn’t really add much to the offense (except Bess), you knew the offense would struggle and that would support your anti-Weeden agenda. You kept your best back off the field on third down so the defense will be sure we weren’t going to run. That will allow some ears pinned back rushes to “test” Weeden under pressure. If he happens to get hurt, oh well that’s just part of the game. If he does poorly, you knew that anyway. Oh yes, and you decided Cousins was a fine guard to develop so the fact that he was a complete sieve to the quarterback was of no concern. He would “get better”. Weeden needed to be tested under pressure anyway. (Oh, sorry, I already said that.) If Weeden happened to get hurt, oh well that’s just part of the game. (Oops, sorry, I said that already also.)
Once you effectively demonstrated to us morons that Weeden was not good and Richardson wasn’t all that much better, you decided to quickly change gears after the team started 0-2. Weeden had just been hurt and couldn’t play. The opportunity was there to speed up the implementation of your master plan (of course we had NO IDEA what you were doing). In order to do that you needed to add more draft picks. What better way to do that than to trade the third pick in the draft from the previous year and try to get a low first round pick. You knew Tom Heckert overvalued Richardson anyway so what was the difference. Plus you could start Brian Hoyer, who your crack staff had determined was better than Weeden anyway despite being cut from three teams last year. That would begin an audition for the back-up quarterback spot for next year. If he did amazingly well, you could even start him for a few games next year while you groom your phenom for the NFL. Campbell was just a back-up at best anyway so you don’t need to see him. Plus, Campbell might win more games and that would drop your draft position. Oh yes, and let’s go ahead and finally bench Greg Little who couldn’t catch a cold. Why upset your new quarterback in his first game?
I could go on but you get the general picture. I actually have a pretty good idea of what you are thinking but you think we all know nothing. You actually think we are buying your coach saying that playing Hoyer was completely his decision and it was because it gives us “the best chance to win”? You actually don’t think we can translate your statement that the Richardson trade “gives us the best chance of sustainable success” really means “we had better get as many damn draft picks as we can so we can get that damn quarterback”. Do you think for a second we can’t tell that Oniel Cousins is a complete stiff and you would never let him play a down at right guard if you had your quarterback in place?
Your ultimate results could be good or disastrous. Your master plan could work to perfection or fall flat on it’s face. The future results will be the judge of your brilliance. I am not saying I know what master plan will work or not work. I am not even saying that you are trying to tank the season. But I also know that I do not have a single digit IQ. I doubt many of the fans reading this or the media have single digit IQs. So could you PLEASE not develop a plan that includes a plethora of catch phrases and bull crap designed to misdirect us and cover the truth. There was a much better way to do this without insulting the intelligence of every fan, every media person, and every competing GM. We all know you are building a war chest of draft picks in order to draft a franchise quarterback. We all know you would be just fine with the season diving to oblivion and our record competing for the bottom of the league. We all know you have no confidence in Brandon Weeden. We all know that Richardson was not “your man” either and he was best used as a chip to get your quarterback. We all know you have no belief that Oniel Cousins will ever be anything but an emergency backup and would never be allowed to step on the field if you had “your playmakers” out there. We all know that Brian Hoyer is not starting this week because he “gives us the best chance to win” but because he needs a try-out to become the backup quarterback. We all know that Chud only made that decision in consultation with Lombardi and yourself. We all know that the Browns are a distinctly less talented team without Richardson and even Weeden. We all know that our fun this season might be completely gone and we will need to sit through a dismal season. We all know the fun of seeing a star running back emerge is gone and we might have given away another talented playmaker with very little to show for it. We all know you can “go all in” for your quarterback, make a mistake, and give us another 5-7 years of pain.
So, after only game 2 of the season, you have purposely put my fun for a season of decent football in serious jeopardy. You may have set the stage for another season of pain. That risk should not be taken so lightly and my intelligence so blatantly insulted. Now I realize that this could work out and the team might not even be dramatically worse or any worse than it would have been without such drastic action. I know Hoyer might even look decent in this offense. But that is not what I am challenging you about with this letter. I am simply saying there was another more reasonable way to do this. You could have told us all that your evaluation of Weeden showed a quarterback who was not as decisive, accurate or analytic as you had hoped. That you were hoping you could coach him up and that he would come through. At the same time you could have acknowledged that Brian Hoyer might get a chance during the season to take control of the offense but you were hoping Weeden would make that decision for you. You could have said that, if you are not sure as the season progresses you have found your quarterback, you were going to make finding a quarterback a top priority. This might require stockpiling draft picks or using other methods to accomplish that goal. You might have had the decency to tell us that your analysis of Trent showed some indecisiveness also about hitting the hole hard and fast. That he ran better in space than up the middle. It would have been fine to say you hoped with your coaching staff you could have improved Trent in all of these areas and he would become the back you expect. You might have been clear that winning more this year would be preferred but that the most important thing was to find a quarterback either on this roster or in the draft and that was a top priority for this season. If things needed to be done to assure that, then you might need to take decisive action to improve your chances to accomplish the primary goal. Finally, you could have just gone out and replaced Oniel Cousins instead of feeding us the line he would “get better”. If that meant Weeden didn’t get hurt or you might have to wait an extra week or two to get Hoyer in there, so be it.
We are not Neanderthals and we all could have dealt with the truth. We may not have liked all we heard but at least we could see the plan being presented to us in a thoughtful and intelligent manner. This charade and soap box drama could have played out so much smoother. Than the decisions to start Hoyer, maybe not let Weeden off the bench when he is healthy, trade Richardson, add draft picks, and other things would have made sense and appear less desperate.
You chose to treat us like we couldn’t see that this was an orchestrated attempt to “prove” to us that you were right and Heckert was wrong. That you were never going to accept the “hand me downs” from Heckert that you didn’t want or like. And that you were willing to, if necessary, sacrifice the season to accomplish your goal.
Thanks for listening but I know nothing I or anyone else says would change your approach. You and Lombardi are the ones with genius IQs and egos the size of Russia. How could we ever teach you anything anyway.
2013 is a hope and a prayer. 2014 CAN be very good.
What an interesting phenomenon we have in Northeast Ohio? The Indians are actually playing meaningful games (and losing unfortunately) and the Browns have not even started. Yet, all the blogging and talk centers around the Browns and the Indians are just the Indians. There are some exceptions for sure, but that is basically what is happening now. Some say that is because this is “Browns Country” and the Indians are a distant second or even third. While that may be true, I feel that the main reason why the fans around the city of Cleveland always talk about the next shiny new season is that it hasn’t blown up in their faces yet. We all agree that Cleveland has a broken and beaten fan base. We all agree that the next team up MUST be better to justify our fervent cheering and adoration. But that might just be why the best Cleveland fan blog is probably “Waiting for Next Year”. We are ALWAYS waiting for next year.
So, with that realization firmly in my soul, this blog is an attempt to take that annual Cleveland ritual to a new level. Let’s start to talk about next year and the Tribe while we are still fighting with the slim hope 2013 could end with a playoff run. My crystal ball is showing nothing but dark clouds for the end of the 2013 season even if we make one of the 2013 “Indian Runs” as we have done every time playoff hopes appear to be dashed. Any run that is coming, if it even comes, will be too little and way too late.
The Indians have much to build on from 2013. They showed resiliency, toughness, good chemistry, and have players emerging. The team has a top flight manager in Terry Francona. Any Cleveland fan who doesn’t know that is a fan just too traumatized to be objective. I can’t blame them but that doesn’t mean I need to agree. And, as much as I have fried the Indians FO and ownership in the past, they made a major off-season attempt to improve the team. More importantly, they did it logically and effectively despite the big misses with Reynolds and Myers. Terry Pluto of the Plain Dealer provided excellent insight and analysis of those “one year deals” in his article from late last night. The quotes from Mark Shapiro make it clear that the Indians have a rational view of these one year deals and what they can accomplish and what they cannot be expected to accomplish.
A positive surprise from the 2013 season thus far has been the progression of our starting pitching. There is no question that we have seen Masterson improve his consistency, Jimenez almost look like a real pitcher, Kluber make a huge step forward, McAllister take a small step forward, Kasmir prove that he can still pitch (but not a full season yet), Salazar emerge as a viable option for 2014, and Bauer take a step further back. That is 6 pitchers who could start for many other teams and one that could emerge. It gives the Indians much more to build from than we thought possible at the start of 2013.
Our battered bullpen has shown flashes of good pitching but really misses Pestano and, if Perez is gone as many think, will be very difficult to form into a team strength for 2014. The bullpen could be a major challenge. One bright light is the pitching of Carrasco in relief. He is a young man made for the bullpen. Don’t think, just pitch. Save your nasty streak for the pen. Man up and come at them. Carrasco can do just that and I hope they keep him in that role. He has the ability to be a decent late inning reliever or, at worst, a solid long man. Now this goes against the basic logic of allowing a young pitcher with power stuff to languish in the bullpen. But that role fits his mentality and approach perfectly. He needs to stay there at least for next season. If his maturity improves, maybe he can transition back as a starter in a year or two. We do have some pretty solid relievers in Perez, Allen, and Smith. If Pestano can find himself, there is a fourth pitcher. As mentioned earlier, Carrasco could be a fifth. The pile of pitchers remaining might account for a couple more. If Perez is traded, subtract one. If Pestano can not come back, subtract another. Anyway, you get the picture. It is not a pretty sight for what many (unfortunately not myself) saw as the strength of the team in 2013. What we wouldn’t give for a Paul Assenmacher reincarnation in 2014? That is, of course, the biggest need for the 2014 bullpen.
The defense has been a major disappointment in my opinion. It has cost us several games and made many others much more difficult than they should have been. It has extended innings, made our pitchers struggle unnecessarily, and made fans cringe with irritation. It is not usually mentioned when you discuss the failures on this team, but it is a big part of why the Indians probably won’t make the playoffs in 2013. The major difficulties on the defensive side have been at shortstop, third base, catcher, right field, and to a lesser extent first base.
Shortstop must be fixed with a player change. I love ACab’s determination, fire, and heart. He has shown a lack of effort at times that is mainly tied to his almost historical rough patch at the plate both based on execution and bad luck. But, overall, it is because he just isn’t a reliable fielder and has very limited range. He can make highlight reel plays but that just isn’t enough.
How to fix third base is anyone’s guess? Again, it probably will take a personnel change but that may not come in 2014. It all depends on how the Tribe FO approaches the off-season.
Catcher can be fixed with Gomes getting the majority of the time behind the plate and that is likely to happen in 2014. I am not giving up on Santana as a catcher altogether but maybe he is better as a DH/first base/backup catcher.
Right field is a tough one because the player the Indians have had out there is known for his defense. Stubbs has had a rough time taking effective routes to the balls both behind him, in front of him and even in the gaps. His arm is amazing but that doesn’t make up entirely for the defensive difficulties. If Stubbs is retained (and that is a big if), just another year out there might make the difference. But, honestly, I have seen no objective improvement as the year has progressed.
First base hasn’t been as bad as it has been inconsistent. I feel that a first baseman must be extremely reliable picking the ball at first. It elevates the defense at all levels. By using such a wide group of players at the position, I think it has led to some inconsistent play. This could be easily fixed but I am not sure how based on the current team composition. To take advantage of what we have, it appears we need to rotate the first base position.
Another disappointment has been some uncharacteristic defensive lapses by Michael Bourn. I am attributing that entirely to moving to a new league with new parks and new hitters. I am not concerned at all about Michael Bourn in center field. Kipnis has also had a few rough stretches but overall is solid defensively. Michael Brantley has been nothing short of spectacular. He is now a gold glove caliber left fielder and has a dangerous and accurate arm. At least we have two gold glove equivalent players (Brantley and Bourn). That is better than zero. I think Yan Gomes might be a third in time. We will see.
I saved the offense/hitting for last because it has, more than any other area, held the Indians back in 2013. If this isn’t corrected for 2014, we have no chance to compete with the “big boys” in the American League. Our new additions have all underperformed and pressed and disappointed. Bourn is the least disappointing of the bunch but even he has not done what could have been expected at the plate and on the bases. Swisher never was a star so to expect him to blossom into a star by signing with Indians was kind of silly. But, even when compared to what could have reasonably been expected, Swisher has underperformed. Santana has underperformed but you begin to wonder if that is where he will stay. Brantley has not underperformed but has hit a very rough stretch of his own and the average and clutch hitting is dropping. Stubbs has been about as might be expected and that is not good at the plate. Cabrera has severely underperformed with one of his worst seasons as a professional at the plate. Kipnis has been solid but also streaky. Chisenhall has been pathetic overall. Gomes has stepped up and looks to be a top level player moving forward. Reynolds was awesome for 6 weeks and was never seen again. Aviles and Raburn have been solid and Raburn has overperformed compared to lifetime stats. Giambi was as expected. Interesting. Some big hits. Some home runs. But way way past his prime. When you read this paragraph closely it all comes together. The Tribe has had a terrible offensive showing for a team that should have been more consistent and certainly more potent.
So where does this leave the Indians in 2013 and how do they make 2014 special? For 2013, the Indians had very subpar hitting, subpar fielding, and above expectation pitching. This is another clear demonstration of the importance of pitching in baseball. The Indians are still in the wild-card chase (albeit barely) with one month of the season to go. That is entirely based on the pitching performances from the starters and, to a lesser extent, the bullpen. Without that improvement, the team would have been well below .500 right now and reaching for the bottom of the division. So that is why there should be optimism for 2014! We now have a pitching base to work from but how we use and extend that base going forward will depend on key strategic and financial decisions from Antonetti, Shapiro, and the Dolan family. Those decisions will be more important than any other over this winter. That being said, the Indians MUST change their shortstop (even if it means using Aviles as a stop gap), they must find a middle of the order hitter who can hit for a high average and OPS, they must use Gomes as the everyday catcher, and the veterans we signed this past off season must produce. Without each of those things, our lack of a true ACE starter and what could be a shaky bullpen will come back to haunt the Tribe in 2014.
In future blogs I will look at the current roster and options the Indians have for this off season. I think that they really can make a legitimate run in 2014 with some good strategic decisions and extending the roster budget by somewhere in the range of 10 million. I realize that this last point will be hard for the Dolans to approve given the lackluster response to this year’s team. But if they decide to “Pay Forward” just one more time, I honestly feel that they will be rewarded with far superior attendance and a better revenue stream. Not to mention a legitimate championship caliber team.
