CLEVELAND WINS !

A few recent tidbits that have been reported support my contention that Cleveland will be a very hard sell, especially to star level free agents. Brian Windhorst tweeted that an agent told him there is a “Cleveland Premium” that must be paid for Cleveland to land any free agents. Our abysmal record over the past three years also makes the Cavs more a place to go and die in your career as opposed to catapulting your career to a championship. Kyrie Irving certainly helps but most free agent contracts would end after he is eligible to leave as a free agent. And we already know that when we had the best player in the game, he wasn’t able to get a high profile star to come to the Cavs. (Yes, I know, Larry Hughes had something to do with that as well.) So the evidence points early along to two ways for the Cavs to get significantly better: 1) A major trade or two major trades 2) Another “Wait for Next Year” season with the hope of signing 2 stars for next year and get one excellent player in the draft. I honestly do not think the Cavs will take the totally passive and very risky approach outlined in number 2. So I believe that leaves us with option 1 or, what I hope, that neither option is correct and the Cavs are simply playing possum in free agency.

Maybe I am wrong and even very good near star players like Collison, Jefferson (who is the best name in the group), and Pekovic will not be possible to attract to Cleveland. If that is the case, then we have NO reason to wait for the 2014 class because that is a laundry list of stars who will have no incentive to come to the Cavs unless no one else can offer them equal money (which might be the case in 2014). I still would like the Cavs to sign one of the 2013 group at least to boost our chances of playoffs and maybe a round one upset. If we don’t sign a player who can significantly upgrade our roster, we are left with trades and minor free agent signings.

Sam Amico from Fox Sports Ohio has made it clear that the Cavs are much more likely to take the trade approach as opposed to signing any significant free agents. As more information comes out, it seems a bit clearer that the Cavs might have some trade possibilities available as this free agent class begins to sign with other teams. Although I welcome a good trade that upgrades our team without trashing our cap space and flexibility, I am worried that we might not be able to pull that off. Is it really better, for instance, for the Cavs to get a couple of years out of Pau Gasol and lose Tristan Thompson? I really don’t think so. But am I wrong? Why not try to sign a free agent player or two and see how this team does without trading away our high draft pick core young players? And if we are helping a team stay under the luxury tax by taking on a high priced player, why should the Cavs have to give up much? I would love to add to the young core we have so patiently drafted and see how they do together. If it isn’t going to work, it will show on the court and the Cavs can adjust from there. Almost no risk in that approach.

If the Cavs do trade, I will restate my case that it would be very dangerous to trade Waiters or Tristan. I believe they have substantial upside remaining (most certainly Waiters) and Tristan has become the leader on the team of the young group. His maturity and intensity were unmatched on the Cavs last year. We just MUST find a way not to trade Kyrie, Dion, Tristan or Bennett. As I size this up further, despite the reduced trade value of Andy, I really think Andy, Alonzo, or maybe Zeller would be the ones we could best part with in a trade. Also, we need to be ready to start including some draft picks in deals if necessary. So I am hopeful if we have a trade ready to go, it includes some combination of those players and pics. If we trade any of the 4 I suggested we don’t trade, it had better be a phenomenal deal for the Cavs bringing back a multiyear All Star and draft pics.

I tried in this post to update my thinking as I see the information unfold in this free agent season. I am beginning to accept the fact that the Cavs will not use my recommended approach and that a trade is coming. I wish Chris Grant the best in his search to improve next year’s Cavs team and beyond. If a trade happens, I will be make sure my thoughts are known.

So with that disclaimer that I really don’t like every idea I am about to present, I will give it a go from both angles. I will try my best to “guess” what the Cavs might be thinking and present how it might work or fail. I will also give my view on some possible options to consider to accomplish the same goal of a sustainable championship caliber team. As data, I will be referencing the Hoopsworld team salary data and the ESPN free agent list for this year and next summer as well. I also have the estimates of the NBA salary cap for the 2014-15 season. This is about the only data I am using for this blog except for looking at player stats. There is no way I can propose crazy 3 team trades or unexpected blockbusters. It is absolutely impossible to write anything rational when you start throwing out trades as a basis for a strategy. So I will purposely minimize trade options even though I will bring up some players that might be worth looking into as a realistic trade targets.

The Cavs have remained consistent, as I have pointed out before, with their administrative approach of not allowing the public or press to have information that could potentially be used against them. In other words, they will keep us all in the dark as much as possible. Some names have leaked out so far and I think that is all you will hear about is a name here and a name there. Some of this, as with the draft, will be misinformation and partial truths. They have made it clear that they need a backup point guard, a center/power forward, and a small forward. At no time have the Cavs assured anyone that they will get all of those needs filled this off-season, but they will try to upgrade as much as possible. I also believe that the Cavs are hoarding cap space as much as they can to allow them to facilitate a trade or take on salary in a trade. I don’t think they know exactly what might become available but they want to be ready when/if it does. They also want to have max contract space remaining for the 2014-15 class of free agents. Unfortunately, I think this puts the Cavs at a distinct disadvantage this off-season and makes it nearly impossible to bring in any veterans with impact for next year. They will try to keep cap flexibility and maybe bring in some minor “upgrades” or role players. The sad thing about this strategy is that they might end up with players similar to or only slightly better than the three we just gave up. I think that Speights, Livingston, and Ellington might be about as good as they will get this summer in free agency. The reason that they are not pursuing any of those three yet is they do not want to commit to a multiyear contract with any of them. If they could sign them all for one year, I think they would do it. But they know that would not be possible. They might even let CJ Miles go but I think that would be silly for an expiring contract worth only a little over 2 million for next year.

So, even when you see them possibly talking to Darren Collison, don’t get your hopes up. Collison will certainly demand and get a multiyear deal somewhere which just about rules out the Cavs. Even Jarrett Jack is probably out of our price range. That also makes signing Pekovic out of the question and Al Jefferson. There are virtually no starting small forwards in the free agent market so don’t hold your breath on that one. Therefore, if I gauge the Cavs correctly, they will not get players in free agency much more effective than the three veterans from Memphis that are now free agents. This might mean we are holding out for players to become available via trade once the highest profile free agents sign with other teams. This strategy could work because I do think some very solid players might be available for a reduced price depending on where Howard goes and others. This strategy is a high risk/high reward strategy. As happened with the draft, the Cavs could talk to every team under the sun about trades and come up stone cold empty. I admire Chris Grant’s persistence to get the best value in a trade, but sometimes the trades need to be a bit more even to happen.

If I am reading the Cavs strategy correctly, they will sign a couple minor free agents for short contracts and hope that a trade can be made to their advantage. If that kind of trade can not be made, then the Cavs run the risk of getting more desperate and making a really BAD trade rather than disappointing Mr. Gilbert. This strategy can work amazingly well if: 1) That favorable trade or trades can be made and we can upgrade the 13-14 team significantly without losing too much cap space or assets. or 2) If the team is upgraded enough to make the playoffs or nearly make the playoffs, and we can acquire two major free agents in the 2014-15 class. The strategy will fail if: 1) The Cavs can not make any favorable trades or, worse yet, make a really bad trade. or 2) They can not attract ANY of the 2014-15 free agents and are left with a shell of a team and Kyrie Irving on the way out the door.

That is my fear for the Cavs. I am concerned that the odds of the strategy I envision they are attempting is not good. If it works, fantastic. If it fails, the franchise is in big trouble. I have SERIOUS doubts that, even with a ton of cap space for two players, we can attract the marquis free agents from the 2014-15 class. We need to face facts here and recognize that Cleveland is not exactly the trendy destination for NBA free agents. The more high profile and high maintenance the player, the less likely he is to come to Cleveland under any circumstances. Next year’s class of free agents is full of high profile and high maintenance players. It is not a good year for the Cavs to go fishing. The players might eat the bait and evade the hook. That includes LeBron James who would like nothing better than to have the Cavs and Cleveland on their knees again begging him to come back and he flirts and then leaves for LA or whatever other high profile market can buy a championship. He did it before. What makes anyone in their right mind think it won’t happen again? So, if the strategy is to get a little better and hope James comes back in 14-15, it is virtually doomed to failure. I honestly don’t believe that is the strategy but that doesn’t mean the thought can’t frighten me.

My strategy would be much simpler and with a higher likelihood of success. I would try to make the team dramatically better with THIS year’s group of free agents and try to save room for one max contract in 14-15. I would not play the high stakes game of trying to pay Andrew Bynum max money for one year and see if he will accept it (and a club option for 14-15). I would not try to wait for bargain basement prices on marginal free agents or fantastic trades that will be very hard to complete. If a great trade presents itself, my approach would not preclude us from being a part of it. So that option will still exist but the strategy will not depend on it.

Let me present a couple of facts about our salaries, cap space, and projected cap space for 2014-15. The Cavs have committed (including CJ but excluding Kevin Jones and Quinn) about 30 million in salaries for next year. The estimated salary cap for next year is around 58.5 million. The Cavs, I believe, do not have the full 28 million in cap space because of previous roster issues and to sign our drafted players but do have well over 20 million. In 2014-15, they have nonguaranteed salaries for Varejao and Gee totaling about 13 million. The projected cap for 14-15 goes up substantially to about 62.1 million. If we traded or did not pay the nonguaranteed portion of Varejao and Gee’s salaries, we would have about 37 million in cap space to sign our newly drafted players and sign free agents. Of course, that does not represent a full roster so the actual cap space is lower because you need to fill out your roster with players. That means the Cavs could probably sign two max or near max players by the time the 2014-15 season comes around. I would not wait for that to occur.

My approach would be to try and sign a significant free agent this year and assess the teams progress. Based on the free agents available, there is not a small forward that is really worth bidding on. There are a couple of point guards worth considering and a couple of centers that would look very good in a Cavs uniform. So I would be aggressive and try to sign Al Jefferson to a contract and get the power forward/center position completed for a championship run. He is a player that would consider signing in a smaller market (evidence his proposed visit to Charlotte) and is highly skilled and a wide body under the basket. That is a good contrast to our current bigs. He is not a dominant shot blocker but rebounds well and can really score the rock. He doesn’t foul excessively for a big man and can pick and pop or pick and roll. Depending on the cost of Jefferson (who I think would be a near max or max deal), we could try to address the point guard position with either Livingston or a better alternative like Collison (who we are reported to be interested in). We could not afford any more free agents this year and would be pressed to add a max deal next year even if we let Andy and Alonzo go. A lower cost alternative would be to sign Pekovic to an offer sheet and hope the Wolves won’t match the offer. That cost could be more back loaded to keep more cap space available. Pekovic would likely take the lower early years in return for a solid multiyear deal. This would be similar to when we signed Andy previously. If we did this, we could certainly afford Collison and still have significant cap space for next year minus Andy and Alonzo. The Cavs base team for 2013-14 would be substantially improved from last year and would be a favorite for a playoff spot. The starting lineup would be Jefferson, Andy, Alonzo, Waiters and Irving. Andy would be able to play less minutes and move back to the power forward position which is somewhat less physical. Tristan and Tyler would come off the bench or you might bring Andy off the bench and start Tristan. Either way the big rotation would be formidable and very very competitive with the top teams. Notice I didn’t mention Bennett? At first he might need to be in the big rotation and that would limit all of their time somewhat. But, before mid-season, I project that Bennett will be able to take over the starting small forward position. He definitely has the skills to do this. I think the Cavs are wise to look at him as a 4 to lower expectations and place less pressure on Bennett. IF you make these two signings, the rotation and players will be easily playoff ready and might create some matchup problems for teams. If the team looks like it could develop without another max free agent, then Andy could be kept and only complementary pieces added. If you need another All Star in 14-15, you would need to cut loose Andy and Alonzo. If I add this up right, the 2013-14 team would have Jefferson, Tristan, Gee, Waiters and Irving starting with Tyler, Andy, Bennett, Collison and Miles/Karasev. In 2014-15 the team would change and a free agent would replace Andy/Alonzo/Miles salaries and our first round draft pick and Karasev would fill out a ten man rotation.

This strategy so far is easy. Simply sign a top center this year and try to fill the back-up point guard slot with a free agent or maybe Dellavedova could fill that role. He was actually a very skilled college player. That would not be my first choice but I would certainly give the kid a chance. Then we could decide, based on how well that team performs, whether or not we need to free the cap space for another max free agent. The more complicated part of the strategy is to use strategic trades to fill the roster out and not depend on a free agent in 2014 at all. A few players to look for as being available cheaply depending on who their teams sign as a free agent would be Derrick Williams, Austin Rivers, Omer Asik, and there are others. You could look for them to become available and make trades to add their talents to the roster.

If the Cavs “dabble” in free agency this year and depend on next year, they might be left at the alter. The free agents this year are still very good and would be much more likely to listen to offers from the Cavs. Although I know I am in the VAST minority with this view, I hope my article has at least caused you to rethink the well publicized position that the Cavs MUST wait until next year to sign a significant free agent. A huge leap forward in 13-14 will go a long way toward convincing the free agent you REALLY want to sign here, Kyrie Irving, that Cleveland is the place to be and to stay.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are certainly consistent when it comes to the NBA draft under Chris Grant. A ton of misinformation, proposed trades that have no possibility of completion, silly multiteam scenarios, complaints of Chris Grant being unreasonable and turning off the league’s General Managers. All the while this craziness continues in the media and with the fans, Chris Grant and his crew are steadily digging down into their options about the players they can take.

This focus on the important issue (which is taking players) helps the Cavs to be involved in multiple discussions and options while still taking the player(s) they want. Two things that are much worse than not making the trades that you almost can make are: 1) Letting the media and distractions alter your focus on the important player issues 2) Making a trade that you would prefer not to make because of the pressure to show you can make a trade.

I will take on the latter possibility first. Chris Grant, by all media reports, drives a hard bargain and might even try too hard to “win” a trade convincingly. This approach probably does turn off some General Managers and frustrate those who work with and against him. I am not certain of this but it seems to be so. My response to that criticism, after suffering through years of Cleveland Sports trades where I shake my head and say “What just happened here?”, is GO GET EM CG!!! I really think that, when you have the cap space and assets to hold them over another team’s head, you must do it or be destined to failure.

As to the first possible draft mistake, the Cavalier front office could NEVER be saddled with that criticism. If nothing else, they stay firm to their philosophy of doing it the “Cavs” way. This year’s selections and draft is a clear indication that they have done it this way consistently since LeBron left the team. The reason anyone who follows the Cavs knows this to be true is the way they defy the “mock drafts” and “draftniks” and pick a player that is almost least expected. Of course this doesn’t apply to the Kyrie Irving selection but there were plenty of fans and media asking them to take Derek Williams and Brandon Knight. I think we know how that would have ended. No All Star player, no rookie of the year, no game closer, and no chance of really turning this thing around. That brings me to the part of this blog where we actually begin to analyze the players the Cavs acquired in this draft.

I have no intention of going into the picks with the depth of Draft Express. I feel that site does a premier job of analyzing the players and giving a tremendous video scouting report. In addition, the great local sites such as Waiting For Next Year are great for draft player analysis. Let’s move on to the pics:

Anthony Bennett is a beast of a player and virtually all of his weaknesses can either be corrected or, at the least, addressed by good coaching and exposure to the NBA. The only “weakness” that can not be corrected is his 6’7″ or 6’8″ height (depending on who you believe). That issue is partially, if not completely, addressed by his 7’1″ wing span. As I view tape on Bennett, he seems to play far bigger than 6’7″ would suggest. He holds his own with the college bigs and his solid body and weight for height should allow him to do the same in the NBA. I am not suggesting he could play center, but even that is not impossible for his size and athletic ability. He fits easily as a power forward and has many of the offensive skills consistent with a small forward. Defensively, he needs to add the intensity and nastiness needed in the NBA but I am quite confident that will come naturally to him once he feels the intensity and physicality at the next level. Plus, he will have Mike Brown’s defensive system and philosophy to carry him through. I am not concerned in the least about his defensive ability at the power forward spot once he has about a half season under his belt. Defense of the small forward spot is another matter entirely. Even there, his athletic build and huge wingspan will allow him to create problems for many small forwards in the league. His lateral quickness will be a liability defensing small forwards so I am not certain how that might work out in the future. My belief is that the Cavs will never start him at the SF position but will play him there in stretches on a match-up basis. That is good enough in my view.

Where Bennett really shines is on the offensive end of the floor. When the Cavs fans see him putting the ball on the floor from mid-court and taking it to the hole with a thunderous dunk, I think any disappointment with the pick will melt away. Especially when he then drifts back to beyond the three point line and drains a 3 on the next possession after the dunk. As all rookies, he will also force shots and get them stuffed and lose the ball trying to outmaneuver a quality NBA defender. I will simply smile knowing that is how this highly skilled young man will get better. At first his intensity will vary and he will be embarrassed from time to time, but I am confident that these experiences will only serve to fortify his reserve to excel. The Cavaliers have probably just acquired an eventual multiple year All Star who will quickly make fans forget Noel or Len or Porter (I am not as sure about Oladepo or McLemore).

In Karasev, the Cleveland front office proved that the best trade is sometimes the one you don’t make. It was not a secret that the Cavs coveted Karasev and tried to trade up to assure they could get him. In this case, as often happens for other teams, he fell to them at 19. This is a huge win for the Cavs. That is not to say I do not have serious reservations about Karasev, because I do. But I am happy that the Cavs let him fall to them knowing he was the one they were trying to get all along. I personally felt that Reggie Bullock was the better choice, but I can certainly see what the Cavs see in Karasev and I feel he will be a solid pick and has tremendous upside (as does Bennett). As I blogged before, I was against the Cavs trading up to get Karasev because of his potential defensive liabilities. In this case they didn’t, so I feel that the offensive potential of the pick will outweigh the defensive deficiencies.

Karasev is an NBA combo 2/3. He can put the ball on the floor, pass with great skill, and shoot with the best in this draft. His shot is a bit low (like Caspi’s) but his release is so fast that he will not be easy to block. He also seems to have a real sense for the mid-range game even though he plays below the rim. He is athletic enough to run the floor and crafty enough to actually run the offense in a pinch. I like his total package as an offensive player and only hope that his lack of lateral quickness doesn’t bite the Cavs in the butt. I sure hope Mike Brown’s defense will cover up some of the Cavs obvious problems staying in front of their man.

In Felix the Cavs have a defensive specialist who has almost no body fat, is 6’6″, and can guard multiple positions. I can see why they took him even though his talent level seemed to slot him for a much lower second round pick. He is a smart young man (has a master’s degree) and has great character by all reports. He goes 100% at all times in the game and in practice. This is a great person to have on the team and certainly fits a specialists role if not a full time rotational player. It is possible that he does become a full time rotational player because of his defensive ability to guard from the point to the 4 position. Kind of like a “poor man’s” Victor Oladepo. Not nearly the player for sure but a good piece to have on a championship team.

In their first two picks, the Cavs probably went for great offensive potential because they felt Brown could teach and demand defense but couldn’t make a player an offensive threat. By drafting this way, they allow Brown to coach to his strengths without the Cavs worrying who can make the next basket. In Felix, they gave Brown a tool to use in his defensive schemes that the Cavs other players could not easily fill.

I am very disappointed with the Cavs simply giving away the first pick in the second round simply because it exceeded their rookie quota. I respect the decision but, if they draft a player who is ineffective, they could simply cut him and swallow the minor cap inconvenience. Many players fell into the second round that were thought to be first round talent. I am not sure why the Cavs could not have used that to acquire another useful player. I realize I am in the minority on this point. But it is a consistent Cavs approach that I simply disagree with.

With that only minor negative and the whole free agent season ahead of us, I am completely optimistic that the Cavs will take another big step forward. I feel they are confidently moving toward building a quality and sustainable team that will not just compete for the playoffs but a run at an NBA title. There is still a long way to go, but this draft is another solid step in that direction.