Cavs Vibrations Are Not “Good”

Is losing in 2012-13 contagious ?
Is losing in 2012-13 contagious ?

This will be a slightly shorter post but is the precursor to some substantial blogs about the Cavs. I suppose I shouldn’t be stunned at the way the Cavs’ losing season is unraveling the fabric of the team and Cleveland fans support of it. But I will admit that I am kind of shocked and dismayed at the latest developments. First of all, the team has performed pitifully over the past few weeks. The record has followed as expected by the poor performances. This will be explored further in a future blog, but it has been tough to watch. Second, the team’s best player was a “no show” at the fan appreciation ceremonies after the final home loss. And, finally, the sharks are in the water and circling Coach Byron Scott.

This entire Cavs circus has been sandwiched with comments leaked in the papers about Scott’s inability to reach the team or Irving’s developing disinterest in the Cavs or that a coach looking for work in the NBA said that he wouldn’t “touch” the Cavs situation because it is just so bad and the “organization is a mess”. These kind of developments do not bode well for the future of the Cavs and speaks to the ongoing joy so many national and local commentators have in dissing this organization (and city of course). The true Cleveland fans reading this stuff must always realize that the NBA and the media that is, in effect, controlled by them has a vested interest in the Cavs organization being dog dung and LeBron being elevated back to sainthood status. One only needs to look at how professional golf suffered when Tiger Woods moral stumbles affected his public perceptions and tour performances. This is big business folks. Millions and millions of dollars are involved. Do not discount the power of those dollars and believe when I tell ya that Cleveland improving is not helpful to the NBA unless Kyrie develops into a Mega Star. And, if he does, there will be tons of pressure to get him out of Cleveland.

With that rather depressing backdrop, I am here to tell you that I am not nearly as concerned about all of this consternation toward and teeth gnashing about the Cavs. Yes, our big star did make a terrible mistake by leaving the court in anger after being “shown up” by Norris Cole of the Heat. Not being involved in fan appreciation really sends a horrible message to the Cleveland fans. However, even faking being happy after that embarrassment would be even more disconcerting. No one can doubt the fire burning in Kyrie’s belly after that game and the sadly incompetent result. That game will drive Kyrie all off-season and he will never forget it. The fact that it caused him to make the most serious public relations mistake of his young and promising career will grind on him even more. I am betting that this will result in a Kyrie more determined than ever to learn how to exert defensive pressure as well as offensive excellence at crunch time. So, he made a mistake. If he comes back stronger next year, I think we will forget a 21 year old’s mistake very quickly.

I am more concerned that some respected media have indicated that Byron Scott is on his way out. I will be the first to admit that Scott has not performed at the top of his game the past three years. He has made questionable choices during games and even with his rotations. I am convinced sometimes that he is not “coaching to win” even though his words say differently. However, he took the job when it appeared that he who left might not leave. He inherited a mess and a GM that was determined to maintain “flexibility” and build through the draft. After his “grabs” for titles by trying to patch a team together around one player, Dan Gilbert was more than happy to follow the lead of his GM. Many moves made by Grant have been nothing short of brilliant but they have not been geared to improve the team rapidly. They have been designed to protect the future once we finally gather a real basketball team together. I can’t tell you how many fans and commentators and talk show hosts and bloggers all talked about how the team would have to “suck” for three years before they would have a chance to build a real championship core and, eventually, team. So, here we are. Three years of monumental crappy play and all under Coach Scott. Wow Coach, what an utterly fantastic job !!!!!!  You were able to follow the ONLY plan we had to become a championship caliber team again. Three years of pathetic play and three top five draft picks. Oh, and by the way, you are fired and we will bring in another Head Coach to leach off of all of your work and succeed. What a country huh???

So, those of you calling for Scott’s head would be mortified and sick if you were placed in such a Kobayashi Maru scenario at your job. If you have never heard of ancient Star Trek lore, I mean he had no chance to succeed and keep is job while following the plan. Maybe we will never get to know the truth. If Scott is fired, in my opinion, we will never even know how he really coaches with a talented team. How he coached with these rag tag groups is no reflection on his ultimate coaching prowess. That being said, if he is given a chance to return, he must bring in an assistant to get this team on the same page on defense. As many have mentioned, we need a defensive specialist. The Cavs scored enough points to win. But they allowed a horrific opponent shooting percentage and way too many points. No matter what the excuse, that is unacceptable.

If I were Grant, I would retain Scott and privately make it clear to him that he must get the team winning in 2013-14 to retain his job. I would demand that he bring on a defensive coach to focus the team on that side of the floor. If Scott refused, I would let him go. I would also sadly accept the fact that I (Grant) needed to alter my plan just a bit and to recognize that I needed to get my coach some better players in 13-14 even if some flexibility is sacrificed. I wouldn’t try to get a max contract free agent or trade the core kids, but I would do anything I could to improve the team enough to almost assure a playoff run next year. Waiting for 2014-2015 will NOT cut it now. We need to make the playoffs next year. Or get darn close trying. Anything less will truly end the “Byron Scott” era and usher in the beginning of the end for Kyrie Irving in Cleveland. I have heard this song before and I don’t like it. The losing must end this year!

Indians first week a success

Not a bad start in 2013
Not a bad start in 2013

The Tribe finally comes home tomorrow afternoon. After starting spring training in the middle of February, having players come and go during the WBC and then starting their regular season on the road our Tribe roll in to Progressive Field at 3-3. Some fans may be disappointed in that record (scored 8 and lost in Toronto; didn’t score against TB’s 4 and 5 starter) and may be worried about some of the individual performances (Myers, Kipnis, Cabrera) but all in all this first week was wildly successful. Here are some quick hits on the positives of the week.

1. Santana’s carried over his WBC experience to the regular season. (.500AVG, 2HR, 5RBI and only 1 K) Obviously he won’t hit .500 all year but this is the Santana we were looking for last season that never really got going. He looks like he is figuring some things out at the plate. He is driving the ball with authority from both sides of the plate. Having him in the 6 hole should keep rallies rolling and help this team score a ton of runs.

2. Ubaldo’s 1st start (6IP, 3H, 1ER, 2BB, 6K) is only one start. It was talked about a lot during the start that he has quickened the pace of his delivery and it proved successful for one day. Now this might go out the window tomorrow afternoon but if we get that Ubaldo 30 times I’m willing to put my deposit down on a Central Division championship T-shirt.

3. Masterson matched up with the Cy Young winners from last year and beat them both. He struggled with command in Toronto but his stuff was dominant today especially his slider which he was able to throw for strikes. He had his 2-seamer under control and was able to shut down a great Toronto line-up and take care of an opportunistic Tampa Bay line-up.

4. Mark Reynolds has already provided the scary power bat this team has been missing since Travis Hafner started battling his injuries. 4 homers in 6 games including the go-ahead homer in Toronto and the bomb today in Tampa. Yes, he has struck out 6 times and a couple of times in the clutch but I think he has made up for it. If Santana continues to hit behind him he will get even more fastballs and will provide protection for Swisher.

The marathon is just beginning but even though we stumbled a little early there is still a lot of good things to take in.

TT is Leader of Young Cavs

TT not Kyrie blog pic

There has been a great deal written about the Cavs, their effort, and their coach recently. The subject has been analyzed and organized in different ways. Much of it has revolved around Coach Scott and how the Cavs effort reflects on him as a coach and a motivator. I would like to start the Cleveland Wins two part series on this topic with a controversial yet, I think, appropriate beginning. That will be to focus more on the players than the coach or the organization. In the current NBA, whether we like to admit it or not, the players dictate the tone and quality of the team and the coaches are sometimes bystanders in the process. I believe that is as relevant to the Cavs as it is to any other NBA team.

Now let’s put the disclaimers on this blog right away. This is not an attempt to “absolve” Coach Scott from any responsibility. This is not a shot at Kyrie. This blog hardly considers Anderson Varejao at all and that is intentional. It is, however, an attempt to better define the current Cavalier’s mental approach using the players as the focal point.

Tristan Thompson has emerged as the leader of this young Cavs team. He has been the one player to display the mental toughness necessary to carry the team forward in the future. Other players may gain that toughness and sense of accountability, but TT has it now …… in spades. No other player has even come close.

Kyrie Irving is the best player on the Cavaliers and that remains unquestioned. He shines above all other players except the greatest in the game today. But, despite his honest efforts to become a leader, it has been more bestowed on him rather than ingrained in him. The same was true of another player that left a few years ago. That player has clearly evolved beyond his play here and I believe, one day, Kyrie will as well. I just want it to be in Cleveland and not somewhere else. In that other era, no other player could really step up and become the leader of the Cavaliers when they needed one. Maybe this time is different.

In order to be the true leader of a franchise (this does not translate to mean best player), you have to possess a few key qualities. First and foremost, you need to be talented and the players around you must see that and believe that. It is sad to say that the players need to see that and believe that in order for you to be that leader but such is today’s NBA. Second, you need to play with intensity and provide few excuses. Third, if it is appropriate, you need to reflect the spirit, determination and lessons of your coach on the floor. Fourth, you need to BE THERE! In other words, you need to be on the court more than off the court. Fifth, you need at all times to hold yourself accountable for your actions and that your actions on the court reflect your words off the court. Sixth, and not least important, when you say the “right things” to the press and others after a win or loss, you need to BELIEVE them and they need to be ingrained inside you. Seventh, with the game on the line, you need to be even more intense and focused than your enormous intensity and focus for the rest of the game. Eighth, once you have established a track record for 1-7, you need to hold your teammates accountable as well for 1-7. They may never believe it like you do, but they might just follow. That is what makes you a leader in today’s NBA.

Think of the words, actions, and play of TT through this tough and painful season for the Cleveland Cavaliers. Compare what he has done and said to the 8 characteristics listed above. I think you will agree that he is emerging in all 8 categories and already there in most of them. It has been one of the only shining lights in an otherwise dark and difficult year.

He has always been a player considered one of potential over NBA production. No one will ever confuse him with Kevin Garnet or Tim Duncan in their prime. In the draft previews one key scout who often gives his observations anonymously said that he would love to work with TT for a few years and see where he could go. He described him as a player with endless motor, superior athleticism, and a desire to be great. At the beginning of the season, no one could see his supposed “progress” from his hard off season work. However, almost as if a light bulb turned on in his head, early into the season he could see where he was going and we could too. Since that has happened, the characteristics of a true leader have begun to emerge with the culmination in a monster performance against Boston. Yes I know about all the players missing from Boston. But that does not minimize Tristan’s performance. And the leadership key comes from what he said leading up to that game and what he said after that game. He believes what he says and now says it with conviction and purpose. And then he goes out and backs it up on the court.

Now don’t get me wrong, TT had many games before that one where he did not back up his words with actions and had recently been in a kind of a funk like the rest of the team. However, when his conviction came back in the press and in the game, his role as a leader became clear. Go back and look at some Tristan interviews as a rookie and early in 2012-13 seasons. He said many of the right things, but you could just see in his face that he was struggling with believing them. His tone was more uncertain. His demeanor less firm and convincing. Kyrie definitely has that problem right now and always has had it. That player that left was similar. But TT no longer is struggling with believing. His tone and demeanor has changed. TT has it now! Thank goodness someone does.

The Cavaliers fans and organization should rejoice in that and look with more anticipation at what the combination of Kyrie and Tristan can do going forward. Maybe some fans can actually get off the “why did they pick him fourth” second guessing train. Maybe, just maybe, we picked up Jordan and Pippen in the same draft. Maybe, just maybe, Dion and Tyler can follow and develop the same steely resolve that TT now has all the time and Kyrie has closing games. If so, this season will not be an entire loss and a leader will have emerged. And that leader is Tristan Thompson!

Indians final roster is exactly as anticipated

Indians script logo

After my time in Spring Training last week, it was pretty clear who would make the final roster. Kazmir definitely won the fifth starter job. As I mentioned in an earlier post, Carrasco was good enough to cause the brass to pause a bit. But it just makes sense to keep Kazmir and give Carrasco more time to fine tune his command in AAA after coming off Tommy John surgery. He and Bauer are definitely on the move upward though and probably sooner than later. It all depends on the success, health or failure of the other starters. No one is secure in the starting rotation except maybe Masterson. I think Francona will go as far as he possibly can with him regardless of early results.

The bullpen is solid and the inevitable odd man out is Nick Hagadone. When Giambi is added to the roster, Hagadone will likely be sent down. He is a great insurance policy in AAA though and will be back to the majors very soon. He pitched well this spring but not outstanding. If he doesn’t develop further into a more dominant pitcher, I will honestly be disappointed. In my mind, once that change is made, the Indians management clearly picked the best 7 pitchers for the bullpen.

The everyday players could have been a bit different, but I agree with the choices. As others have alluded, Giambi was a huge “presence” in the camp and will be a good steadying influence to start the season. The Indians need players and coaches that expect to win and know how to win. Giambi and Swisher will clearly help in that area (as will Francona). However, Zeke Carrera had a very good spring as did Cord Phelps. Fortunately, we can still retain Phelps in the minors. The only other decision I was wondering about was back-up catcher. In my mind, Yan Gomes is a better player right now than Lou Marson. The reason Marson was kept is that they supposedly feel that Gomes has starting catcher potential. Because of this, they want him to play every day. That is why he was sent down. We will see how long that lasts if Marson struggles with the big club.

Another thing is pretty clear, don’t expect the same lineup on a daily basis. There will be major shifts in the lineup throughout the weeks ahead. That is because our bench is so much better than in the past. Aviles really deserves to play about 3-5 times a week and Giambi about 1-2 times per week. Rayburn deserves some time also and Marson will have to spell Santana 1-2 times per week. This will give Francona flexibility along with being able to shift Swisher, Aviles, and Rayburn to the outfield. I really like the Tribe roster and it is the best I have seen in years. They are not spectacular for sure but very good.

Counting on Ubaldo is still like playing Vegas

Ubaldo could be an Ace or a Joker
Ubaldo could be an Ace or a Joker

(updated at 8:30 PM on 3/26/13)

Let’s get the emotional drama out of this right away. I am not an Ubaldo “hater” as his supporters often call anyone who questions his ability to consistently win major league baseball games as a starting pitcher. I actually love Jimenez for one simple biased reason. He is a Cleveland Indian! I want each and every player on the Tribe 25 man active roster to be superior and unquestioned in their ability. I want to believe each one is a winner and has the emotional and physical tools to be successful. Ubaldo is no exception.

Now that the emotional war between Jimenez supporters and “haters” is removed from this post, it would be wise for all Indian fans to be willing to look at Ubaldo in a rational and reasoned way. Ubaldo Jimenez was for 1/2 of one year a masterful and dominant pitcher. He was an Ace of Aces. Virtually unhittable and extremely successful. That was in the first half of the 2010 season. Before then, he was a very solid pitcher with a good ERA and a very good hits to innings pitched ratio. In fact, even through the end of the 2010 season (and he had a marginal second half), his career ERA was 3.53. He had allowed only 604 hits in 727 major league innings. Those are outstanding numbers even for the National League. In my view hits to innings pitched is one of the best ways to judge a pitcher. Since the 2010 season, his ERA is 5.04 and he has allowed 376 hits in 364 innings. This is a dramatic change for the worse.

Now the glass half full crowd is saying “Well, that was primarily in the American League where the ERAs are higher and the hitters are better.” The glass half empty crowd is saying that they knew all along that he was no good and those statistics support their view. I am simply saying that the statistical facts are a cause for some concern and supports a need for further examination of Ubaldo’s regression since the first half of 2010. This has all been well documented in the standard press articles over the past two years. But it is the analysis that follows by an amateur fan like myself that makes the Indians front office cringe at the thought of our feeble attempts to really understand what is the root cause of Ubaldo’s difficulties. This is understandable because the manager and front office always know more facts than the fans and also have the medical reports on the players. We certainly have no access to that kind of data (nor should we).

So let’s look at Ubaldo’s changes since the first half of 2010 that might explain the statistical regression. In early 2010 it was widely reported that Ubaldo’s fastball was topping out at around 98 MPH and consistently was between 96-98 MPH. Subsequent to the 2010 season (and maybe even during the 2010 season) his velocity dropped substantially to around 92-94 MPH by the beginning of the 2011 season. It could be argued that after his decrease in effectiveness during the second half of 2010 Ubaldo was trying to reduce velocity to improve command. To examine that we should look at the walks to innings pitched in the 2009 and 2010 seasons and compare them to 2011 and 2012. In 2009-2010 he issued 177 walks in 439 innings. In 2011-2012 he issued 173 walks in only 364 innings. Again, we see a substantial regression. So his drop in velocity was not to improve his command, it simply occurred. The causes for this are usually a combination of several factors, but it is safe to say that Jimenez did not plan it to happen.

Some things we do know is that he suffered a groin injury during early 2011. That can certainly affect velocity to a degree. However, that type of injury fully heals so the fact that the velocity never came back can’t be explained by the early injury. He did regain some velocity back to about 96 before the trade to Cleveland, but he never consistently showed that velocity on his fastball while pitching for Cleveland. When he did hit 96 or rarely 97 on the gun, it was only for a pitch or two and then he dropped back to about 94. The Indian front office has unfailingly attributed the velocity change and the command worsening to Ubaldo’s pitching mechanics. Well, in two years of trying to fix his mechanics there has been little change in either velocity or command. So it should be no surprise to anyone that many of us are waiting for the report that Ubaldo’s shoulder or elbow is hurt and he has been trying to pitch through it but finally couldn’t do it any more. Despite this, Ubaldo reports that he feels fine and there has never been a report of an injury or an abnormal scan to substantiate the injury theory. And I can guarantee everybody that his right arm has been scanned from forearm to shoulder by this time.

So, with mechanical adjustments unsuccessful so far and no reported injury to explain the statistical worsening, you might begin to explore his mental makeup and if that could be affecting command and velocity. Now I think it is impossible to even begin to speculate on the psychological state of a professional athlete as a fan. But Ubaldo seems to put together some of his worst performances during “big games”. I think it is fair to say that he does not display the mental toughness that you might expect in an ACE pitcher or even a solid #2 starter. He has repeatedly tried to lift up the fans by saying that his velocity will come back by (pick a date) but it never has. That makes you wonder if he was trying to convince himself as much as the fans that his velocity would return.

Another way to look at Jimenez is to use the “eye test”. There has never been a time I have watched him when his arm isn’t flying every which way and his mechanics are smooth and consistent. The result is a ball that has good movement but often misses the catcher’s mitt by a large margin. When he misses in the strike zone with those pitches, they are often hit hard and far. That is where the eye test surpasses the statistical analysis. It is easy to see with today’s HD television and pitch track graphics how the pitch ends in relation to where the catcher’s mitt was placed. Jimenez rarely if ever passes that eye test.

All of this comes together in the final result that is, sad to say, Ubaldo Jimenez. He is a hard worker and nice person by all accounts. But as a pitcher he is inconsistent and can not command the fastball to the catcher’s mitt. Because of this, the drop in velocity is critically important. With velocity in the 96-98 MPH area, those pitches that wander over the middle of the plate belt high can still be tough to center on for the hitter. If they are a little above the belt and down the middle, they are even harder to hit. But when you subtract the velocity and don’t improve the command, the results are a mediocre at best. If we think otherwise, we deceive ourselves and set expectations too high.

Remember, when CC Sabathia dropped his velocity he became an even more dominant pitcher. The reason is that his command developed to the point that it is superior. His curveball command has been good enough to keep the hitter’s honest. And, when he needs it, the velocity is still there. Ubaldo does not have the superior command necessary to follow CC’s path. If he gets it or the velocity cranks back to 96-98 with his same command, he might be a number one or two starter again. There has been nothing this spring, including his last outing, that has shown me the progression necessary. In fact, his fastball was clocking at 88-91 for some of his spring outings. That should go up again to the 92-94 range by the time the season starts but that won’t be enough without the progression in command.

My hope is that Ubaldo finds one of those two key ingredients to allow him to help lead the Indians starting staff. But, if he doesn’t, please realize what he is. He is a fourth or fifth starter that will have a few extremely good games but many mediocre performances. If we understand that, we won’t be as disappointed or as harsh in our criticism of Jimenez. That would be a good thing.

It is for all of these reasons that I disagree with the many writers who claim that Jimenez will be a key to the Indians 2013 season. I think the keys to the season will be the other 4 starters and how they perform. Without a true #1 and only a #2 starter (Masterson), it will be critical for the other 3 starters to step up their game and fill the voids in the rotation. I still hold out hope that McCallister, Kazmir, and Myers can perform at the high end of their talent to carry us through the season. Also, Carrasco and Bauer could be big later this year. And Dice-K is waiting in the wings if he can find himself. (He just signed a minor league deal today.) If Ubaldo Jimenez turns back into an ACE, the Tribe just hit a straight flush on the river. Congratulations !!