Ben Tate – Elite Running Back or Injury Prone?

There has been a lot of talk in the mainstream media about Ben Tate not being an elite running back. The reason for this has nothing to do with his statistics or ability on the field to follow his blocks and make people miss consistently. It is all about the injuries. Has Ben Tate dealt with nagging injuries throughout his NFL career? Of course and there is no denying it, but he was also never injured in his college career. If you look at it realistically the exception to the rule is a running back who lasts all 16 games of the season without issues. So let’s run down a list of top tier RBs and their serious or nagging injuries (or lack thereof):

Adrian Peterson: Season ending knee injury in 2011. It happened in week 12 so he missed only 4 whole games. If this happened week 2, done for the year.
Matt Forte: Knee injury in 2011, constant ankle problems during the 2012 season.
Jamal Charles: Season ending knee injury in 2011.
Reggie Bush: Only played 2 full seasons since coming into the NFL in 2006.
DeMarco Murray: Constantly injured and has yet to play a full season since coming into the NFL in 2011.
Maurice Jones-Drew: Missed almost entire 2012 season, but otherwise has been relatively healthy.
Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, LeSean McCoy: Have stayed relatively healthy throughout their careers and have only missed a few games here and there.

There are a couple players I wanted to mention outside of the basic list. One of these is 49ers running back Frank Gore and the other is Ben Tate’s former running mate Arian Foster.

Frank Gore is a perfect example of a player that almost anyone would consider injury prone coming into the NFL. He tore the ACL in his left knee during the spring (not even in a live game) before his sophomore year and then tore the ACL in his right knee during his junior year. Since then all he has done is shouldered the load of the 49ers running game for the last 9 years without missing any significant time. Lesson to be learned: a player’s luck can change.

Arian Foster has had 3 Pro-Bowl caliber years, and 2 seasons where he couldn’t even get through half the games since coming into the NFL. I don’t think there is a single person that follows the NFL that wouldn’t consider Arian Foster an elite running back. Now I am not saying that Tate is Arian Foster, but like Foster, when he is on the field, he puts up elite running back numbers. In fact, Tate has a higher yards per carry average in his NFL career than Foster. So is Ben Tate an elite running back? Looking at it statistically, the answer is yes.  Time will tell as to whether or not Ben Tate is elite, but having a contract that is heavily performance based is a perfect way to see what he is capable of. The bottom line is it is simply unfair to group elite running back status with the overused and misunderstood term “injury prone.”

Unfinished business: Cleveland Indians with a ton to prove

Our team goes into the 2014 season coming off of a playoff (yeah I know it was one game but that’s the system) appearance, a surprising 10 game run at the end of the season and an off-season of more losses than gains. The baseball world is only focused on the losses in the off-season. Ubaldo is gone and so is Scott Kazmir. Joe Smith is an Angel. Our biggest acquisition David Murphy is a veteran but the excitement of the winter of 2012-2013 is gone. It is easy to predict that the Indians will not beat out Detroit for the tops in the division but most predictors have the Royals finishing a close second and our Tribe taking third.

This team has to love the position they are in. No one outside of the city expects anything out of them. The fans always have high expectations and as you listen to the team talk this spring training they feel like they are ready to make a run as well. If the talent on this team shows through, the Indians will make a run and potentially beat out the Tigers for the division.

Without question the starters performed above expectations last season. Ubaldo came back to his early 2010 self, Kazmir had a rebirth, however more importantly the young pitchers performed very well. A rotation of Masterson, Kluber, McAllister, Salazar and (insert 5th starter here) is not going to be tops in the league but will be more than serviceable. All the pitchers have swing and miss stuff and have had success in the big leagues. More importantly, the entire group has something to prove. Masterson wants to show he deserves Homer Bailey level money. The younger guys are trying to establish themselves as staples in the big leagues. Kluber, McAllister, Salazar and the rest should all have the fire in their belly to make everyone to forget about Ubaldo and Kazmir.

The bullpen was the weakness of the club last season. This season, if Axford can anchor the bullpen and be the reliable closer he can be the bullpen has a shot of being back near the top. Pestano will make a huge difference as well. Allen and Shaw will have to duplicate or improve on their performance from last year. Again, this group is just young enough to have that desire to prove to everyone that they belong. Will that be enough to cement games in the end? Only time will tell.

The lineup is my biggest place of hope. This offense will continue to get better. Carlos Santana not being behind the plate will not only help the team defensively but Carlos hits 40 points higher when he is not behind the plate. The wear and tear and the mental preparation that catching requires obviously effects Carlos’s offense as well. This year as the 3B/DH he should be able to stay strong and hit for a higher average. Swisher, Bourn and Cabrera all performed below their career statistics.  However, they somehow were able to finish 5th in the AL in runs scored.  Yes, the Tribe lacks the 40 HR guy in their lineup but all of the players in the lineup mesh together very well.

The secret ingredient in all of this is the near miss last year and the lack of respect that this team is getting nationally. I don’t think it is something that will ever come up with the media but behind closed doors this team has to be excited about everyone overlooking them. The talent is there and so is the depth. The leadership on and off the field is there. Now, the time has come for the Indians to get everyone talkin’ Tribe.

Today’s Spring Training Indian Player Capsules

Michael Bourn getting ready for big year
Michael Bourn getting ready for big year
More capsule summaries and updates from Goodyear. Enjoy.

UPDATE Josh Tomlin: Super encouraging outing. Very good command and deception with all pitches. Looked like Tomlin at his best before injury. I think two homers at end might have been fatigue. Although we do know Josh is prone to solo homers. He needs to make staff somewhere. If not, first call up when pitching needed.

UPDATE Cody Allen and Bryan Shaw: Sharp again and I am confident baring injury that they can lock down 7th and 8th innings. I assume Shaw 7th and Allen 8th with situational lefty as needed.

David Aardsma: Threw well today and earlier also. He has high level ML experience and is a long shot to make the club. But it would not be completely shocking if he did depending on other factors moving forward. He is solid depth, but I think if Indians cut him he will sign with another team.

Yan Gomes: This young man is fundamentally sound in every way. He has a solid approach at the plate and I think his hitting will be an asset. More importantly, he calls a good game and is awesome at controlling the running game. Thank you Toronto and Esmil Rogers!

Jason Kipnis: Has been sharp in the field and not at the plate. Seems to be struggling with his plate discipline. He goes through stretches like this and it seems to be a pattern. But the flip side is that he gets red hot and hits everything in sight. If you watch Kipnis enough you can see if he is locked in by how many off speed pitches in the dirt he lays off. When he doesn’t swing at those, he is usually hitting well. I am not concerned and I don’t think you should be either.

Asdrubal Cabrera: He looks good and is showing good plate discipline. When he does that, he gets more than his fair share of hits. I expect in this contract year Asdrubal will do well.

Nick Swisher: Hitting the ball fairly well but many are “atom” balls. He did not hit one ball in the games I saw with any power. So that might be a slight concern but it is too early to tell.

Michael Bourn: Struggling at the plate but not in the field. He has shown good speed but still no inclination to steal bases. I still think Michael will come back with a stronger offensive year and more disruption on the bases. He is coming off minor leg surgery so building slowly this spring is logical.

Expect more on Sunday. None for tomorrow. Traveling back home.

Some Updates and New Indians Player Capsule Reports

The Roster Battles are Interesting
The Roster Battles are Interesting
Here are some new capsule profiles for your review and a couple of updates. Hope you enjoy them.

UPDATE – Vinnie Pestano: He threw again today and seemed to be working on his fastball command. He threw a few 80 MPH breaking balls but his focus was clearly on the fastball. His speed was between 90-91 MPH and more often at 91. This is still about 2 MPH below his previous springs but he could catch up by the end. His main problem was fastball command with the velocity being less important. He still has some work to do. I am rooting for him.

UPDATE – CC Lee: Still throwing well and looking good. He is right on the edge of being ready. I would still like to see better fastball command. If sent down (which is likely), he will be near the top of the list when call-ups are needed.

Carlos Santana: As you have been hearing, Carlos is beginning to find his mojo at third base. He is playing with excellent skill, soft hands, and a cannon for an arm. His arm had been inconsistent but that seems to be changing with many excellent throws lately. I think he has a great chance to win the job.

Justin Sellers: This diminutive bundle of energy acquired from the Dodgers earlier this spring has been very impressive. His fielding has been solid but not spectacular. His hitting has been excellent showing good swing to contact and an ability to take the ball where it is pitched. He has gap power and a very lackluster major league hitting performance in his career. Great depth for the minors but it will be very difficult for him to break camp with the ML club.

David Murphy: He has done nothing to diminish his reputation as a solid fielder. However, his hitting has not been very good and he seems to be pressing a bit. A year like last year is enough to shake anyone’s confidence and I fear that his confidence has not fully recovered. Still 2 more weeks to go so there is still time.

Matt Carson: Matt’s performance at the end of last year and this spring makes it very difficult to cut him from the roster. His age and lack of a great minor league track record are strikes against him considering he is going up against the likes of Jeff Francoer and others. He is hitting well now and his defense has been solid.

I will try to get some more capsules up on the site soon.

A Few Indian Position Player Capsules – more to come

Some position players of interest
Some position players of interest
Here are some more brief capsules on Indian players during spring training. We will explore more position players over the next couple of blogs.

Lonnie Chisenhall: I remain concerned about his long term future with the Indians. He is frustrating for devoted Indian fans to watch because of his immense promise. Way too much talent to give up on but way to much inconsistent performance to count on. He has tried to adjust to his repeated 1-2, 0-2 counts by swinging at the first pitch. That may work for awhile but most scouting reports will catch up to that and he will see breaking balls in the dirt on pitch one. He would be better off simply seeing the ball and hitting it instead of developing a tendency. I see the same over anxiousness this spring that we see during the season. He had a nice day at the plate yesterday but several poor days as well. His fielding remains inconsistent making him tough for Terry to count on. But Francona clearly has not given up on him. He had another nice double today as well but still doesn’t look comfortable at the plate. I wish I was as optimistic as Terry.

Francisco Lindor: As all Indian fans know, he has a major league glove right now. The Indians are trying to get him a good number of At Bats this spring. That is a good strategy. He was a DH yesterday, a position he will likely never play at the ML level. His swing is aggressive making him prone to off speed pitches down but that is also what results in extra base power. So his job going forward is balancing his aggressive swing with good plate discipline. Often those two don’t go together but, when they do, potential .300 hitters with gap power result. That is probably Lindor’s upside. But combine that with a fine defender and the Indians will have one heck of a player.

Jesus Agular: Do not be fooled by his long no-hit streak this spring. This young man brings a fairly nice discipline to the plate along with pure power. He does not seem to over swing. Even with this frustrating spring in his first big chance with the big club, he looks controlled and disciplined. Not easy when you are 0 for 16. I like his approach and I saw him hit some nice balls that were turned into outs. Certainly one to watch going forward. I think he has an excellent chance to emerge within two years. I was not able to see enough defensive plays to be sure there but he looks a bit stiff. Would like to see more but he is probably sent down by the time you read this.

Carlos Montcrief: I like what little I saw of him this spring. He has power and reasonable plate discipline. He has an aggressive swing and makes good contact. His fielding is not elegant looking but effective. He made some nice plays but I think he might have made them look harder than they were. A work in progress but he is a solid prospect.

I will have more available late tonight. Going to check out the Cavs now. Ttyl8r.