Category: Indians

(updated at 8:30 PM on 3/26/13)

Let’s get the emotional drama out of this right away. I am not an Ubaldo “hater” as his supporters often call anyone who questions his ability to consistently win major league baseball games as a starting pitcher. I actually love Jimenez for one simple biased reason. He is a Cleveland Indian! I want each and every player on the Tribe 25 man active roster to be superior and unquestioned in their ability. I want to believe each one is a winner and has the emotional and physical tools to be successful. Ubaldo is no exception.

Now that the emotional war between Jimenez supporters and “haters” is removed from this post, it would be wise for all Indian fans to be willing to look at Ubaldo in a rational and reasoned way. Ubaldo Jimenez was for 1/2 of one year a masterful and dominant pitcher. He was an Ace of Aces. Virtually unhittable and extremely successful. That was in the first half of the 2010 season. Before then, he was a very solid pitcher with a good ERA and a very good hits to innings pitched ratio. In fact, even through the end of the 2010 season (and he had a marginal second half), his career ERA was 3.53. He had allowed only 604 hits in 727 major league innings. Those are outstanding numbers even for the National League. In my view hits to innings pitched is one of the best ways to judge a pitcher. Since the 2010 season, his ERA is 5.04 and he has allowed 376 hits in 364 innings. This is a dramatic change for the worse.

Now the glass half full crowd is saying “Well, that was primarily in the American League where the ERAs are higher and the hitters are better.” The glass half empty crowd is saying that they knew all along that he was no good and those statistics support their view. I am simply saying that the statistical facts are a cause for some concern and supports a need for further examination of Ubaldo’s regression since the first half of 2010. This has all been well documented in the standard press articles over the past two years. But it is the analysis that follows by an amateur fan like myself that makes the Indians front office cringe at the thought of our feeble attempts to really understand what is the root cause of Ubaldo’s difficulties. This is understandable because the manager and front office always know more facts than the fans and also have the medical reports on the players. We certainly have no access to that kind of data (nor should we).

So let’s look at Ubaldo’s changes since the first half of 2010 that might explain the statistical regression. In early 2010 it was widely reported that Ubaldo’s fastball was topping out at around 98 MPH and consistently was between 96-98 MPH. Subsequent to the 2010 season (and maybe even during the 2010 season) his velocity dropped substantially to around 92-94 MPH by the beginning of the 2011 season. It could be argued that after his decrease in effectiveness during the second half of 2010 Ubaldo was trying to reduce velocity to improve command. To examine that we should look at the walks to innings pitched in the 2009 and 2010 seasons and compare them to 2011 and 2012. In 2009-2010 he issued 177 walks in 439 innings. In 2011-2012 he issued 173 walks in only 364 innings. Again, we see a substantial regression. So his drop in velocity was not to improve his command, it simply occurred. The causes for this are usually a combination of several factors, but it is safe to say that Jimenez did not plan it to happen.

Some things we do know is that he suffered a groin injury during early 2011. That can certainly affect velocity to a degree. However, that type of injury fully heals so the fact that the velocity never came back can’t be explained by the early injury. He did regain some velocity back to about 96 before the trade to Cleveland, but he never consistently showed that velocity on his fastball while pitching for Cleveland. When he did hit 96 or rarely 97 on the gun, it was only for a pitch or two and then he dropped back to about 94. The Indian front office has unfailingly attributed the velocity change and the command worsening to Ubaldo’s pitching mechanics. Well, in two years of trying to fix his mechanics there has been little change in either velocity or command. So it should be no surprise to anyone that many of us are waiting for the report that Ubaldo’s shoulder or elbow is hurt and he has been trying to pitch through it but finally couldn’t do it any more. Despite this, Ubaldo reports that he feels fine and there has never been a report of an injury or an abnormal scan to substantiate the injury theory. And I can guarantee everybody that his right arm has been scanned from forearm to shoulder by this time.

So, with mechanical adjustments unsuccessful so far and no reported injury to explain the statistical worsening, you might begin to explore his mental makeup and if that could be affecting command and velocity. Now I think it is impossible to even begin to speculate on the psychological state of a professional athlete as a fan. But Ubaldo seems to put together some of his worst performances during “big games”. I think it is fair to say that he does not display the mental toughness that you might expect in an ACE pitcher or even a solid #2 starter. He has repeatedly tried to lift up the fans by saying that his velocity will come back by (pick a date) but it never has. That makes you wonder if he was trying to convince himself as much as the fans that his velocity would return.

Another way to look at Jimenez is to use the “eye test”. There has never been a time I have watched him when his arm isn’t flying every which way and his mechanics are smooth and consistent. The result is a ball that has good movement but often misses the catcher’s mitt by a large margin. When he misses in the strike zone with those pitches, they are often hit hard and far. That is where the eye test surpasses the statistical analysis. It is easy to see with today’s HD television and pitch track graphics how the pitch ends in relation to where the catcher’s mitt was placed. Jimenez rarely if ever passes that eye test.

All of this comes together in the final result that is, sad to say, Ubaldo Jimenez. He is a hard worker and nice person by all accounts. But as a pitcher he is inconsistent and can not command the fastball to the catcher’s mitt. Because of this, the drop in velocity is critically important. With velocity in the 96-98 MPH area, those pitches that wander over the middle of the plate belt high can still be tough to center on for the hitter. If they are a little above the belt and down the middle, they are even harder to hit. But when you subtract the velocity and don’t improve the command, the results are a mediocre at best. If we think otherwise, we deceive ourselves and set expectations too high.

Remember, when CC Sabathia dropped his velocity he became an even more dominant pitcher. The reason is that his command developed to the point that it is superior. His curveball command has been good enough to keep the hitter’s honest. And, when he needs it, the velocity is still there. Ubaldo does not have the superior command necessary to follow CC’s path. If he gets it or the velocity cranks back to 96-98 with his same command, he might be a number one or two starter again. There has been nothing this spring, including his last outing, that has shown me the progression necessary. In fact, his fastball was clocking at 88-91 for some of his spring outings. That should go up again to the 92-94 range by the time the season starts but that won’t be enough without the progression in command.

My hope is that Ubaldo finds one of those two key ingredients to allow him to help lead the Indians starting staff. But, if he doesn’t, please realize what he is. He is a fourth or fifth starter that will have a few extremely good games but many mediocre performances. If we understand that, we won’t be as disappointed or as harsh in our criticism of Jimenez. That would be a good thing.

It is for all of these reasons that I disagree with the many writers who claim that Jimenez will be a key to the Indians 2013 season. I think the keys to the season will be the other 4 starters and how they perform. Without a true #1 and only a #2 starter (Masterson), it will be critical for the other 3 starters to step up their game and fill the voids in the rotation. I still hold out hope that McCallister, Kazmir, and Myers can perform at the high end of their talent to carry us through the season. Also, Carrasco and Bauer could be big later this year. And Dice-K is waiting in the wings if he can find himself. (He just signed a minor league deal today.) If Ubaldo Jimenez turns back into an ACE, the Tribe just hit a straight flush on the river. Congratulations !!

Although Masterson’s mechanics do look tighter, his arm was lagging slightly behind his body and the pitches were up for the first 4 innings. This consistently reduces his sink and allows hitters to center up on the ball better. Shoddy defense contributed to the runs allowed but that doesn’t change the obvious difficulties Masterson experienced. Strangely, in his fifth inning of work his arm came through on time and his pitches were much better located and had movement. Not sure why his mechanics improved in his last inning.

Joe Smith and Hagadone both had good performances. Decent command and solid results.

Cabrera had two mental lapses. One in the field trying to make a great play instead of the right play and one on the bases. It is Spring Training so we can let that go but it should be avoided once the season starts.

Aviles made his first appearance since the WBC and it was good to see him in a Tribe uniform.

Santana looked good at the plate and behind the plate.

Reynolds hit one of the most majestic bombs to left I have ever seen. Over the scoreboard and out of the park. Vinnie Pestano tweeted that he will never get tired of watching Reynold’s home runs this year.

Brantley continues to look comfortable at the plate. Great to see. Hitting the ball exceptionally well.

Carrera continues to impress me but I am not sure they can find a spot for him on the bench. I would hate to see them lose both Huff and Carrera this way, but it is very possible.

Leaving tomorrow early AM. Bummer.

Indian posts will keep coming after I return home. May just be more spread out and more commentary similar to my Francona post earlier this week.

As I begin my last day at Cleveland Indians Spring Training in Goodyear, I wanted to share some observations from the last three days both about the players I have watched and the overall camp. Having spent a week at each Spring Training since 1982 with the Tribe, I feel I have some reasonable qualifications to provide insight and comparisons.

This camp has been very well run as far as a fan can observe and it has had some very nice qualities for a fan interested in the future of the Indians as well as the present. Terry Francona and Chris Antonetti have allowed some of our top young prospects to play in the main Spring Training games for at least an inning or two. This has allowed me to see Lindor, Wolters, and Naquin without guessing where they might be and finding them in the minor league camp. In past camps, you would have to fight to even see them in game situations on the practice fields. I believe that this is valuable experience for these high ceiling prospects by allowing them to play in front of larger crowds with the major league team. That allows them to sit on the bench and observe the veterans like Swisher, Bourn, and Cabrera as well as talk and interact with them during a game. I think this is good for the fans and the organization going forward.

Tyler Naquin has stood out among the youngsters simply because of his diminutive size and his “all out” style of play. He is a threat on the bases, with the bat, and with the glove. Probably not destined to be a super star, but it is very hard to picture him not making it to the big leagues at some point and having an impact.

Everyone knows the expectations of Lindor and I am sure he will meet them at some time. It is clear (actually similar to all the three youngsters mentioned) that he is not ready now and will not be ready for a year or so. But his bat stands out and he is smooth in the field. His defense will not make you forget Omar but it will be as solid as we currently see on the major league level and a bit more.

On the “bubble” side of the roster, I do not see David Huff remaining with the Tribe. He has been given numerous chances and still might prove to be a serviceable major league pitcher but not with Cleveland. I am purposely not reading the papers so I am sorry if this or other observations might be old news.

Trevor Bauer looks solid for the future and the future might be later this year. He did a decent job in the outing I watched despite giving up quite a few runs. He has major league stuff but needs to be sharp with his command to have a chance to be dominant. I think he was squeezed on some of his calls in the outing and was around the plate for the most part. That all being said, he is not ready now and might not be this year. But I have no doubt he will break into the starting rotation in the not too distant future.

Cord Phelps has made strides even since I arrived and is hitting and fielding with more confidence. I have felt for a long time that his greatest weakness is letting his emotions get the better of him when trying to play for the major league club, even in spring training. I am not sure he can do much now to salvage a roster spot, but I would love to keep him in the organization at least one more year. Not sure if that is possible.

Vinnie Pestano, probably the most loved pitcher in our pen, showed the same kinks in his armor in his first outing of the Spring (lack of command). In his second outing he had good velocity, decent command, and hitters looked more uncomfortable hitting against him. Although almost no one is concerned about Pestano, I will be much happier once he has some success this season. I have concerns but believe Vinnie will prove me wrong.

Matt Albers and Brian Shaw have settled in nicely and I think will be solid additions to the pen. I think getting them as a part of the Reds / Diamondbacks trade is huge for this year. They are not dominant but good major league pitchers.

Carrasco has had a couple of outings since I arrived and I am convinced he will help this year. But don’t expect him to break camp with the big club. I think he needs a little more time. That being said, with the way pitchers go down, he will be a major factor in how the Tribe does this year.

This is one year when I am not sure who will be the bench players at the start of the season. Maybe Francona has decided so I am sorry if this is old news but there will be an internal struggle whether to keep veterans (Giambi, Rayburn, Gomes or Marson) or the younger players (Phelps, etc.). The only bench spot assured in my mind is Mike Aviles who is a fantastic addition to the Tribe this year. Maybe the DL will swallow up a couple of those guys but hard to tell.

The last possible bullpen spot might also cut off one of the position players if they keep 13 pitchers to start the season. Hagadone and Huff are still in the running but Hagadone is much more likely.

Quick hits:

Don’t worry about Michael Bourne’s spring. Meaningless.

Brantley and Chisenhall are ready to contribute at a high level this year.

Still worry about Jimenez. And keep worrying.

Masterson should be better than last year but not up to 2011 standards.

That’s all for now.

Stay tuned for more observations going forward.

It is not easy to become a major league manager and even harder to stay one. Sometimes success can come from good fortune and sometimes from hard work. But to be looked upon as an elite manager, you need to lead some really successful teams and win the ultimate prize as a World Series Champion.

I am writing this at Spring Training before one game that matters is actually played. I don’t want a slow start or a fast start or, worse yet, a full season to pass before this is written. Terry Francona IS an elite manager! And, better yet, he is the Cleveland Indians manager!

Now you might say I am simply stating the obvious after Francona’s success with Boston or that I am delirious as a Tribe fan considering his lukewarm performance with Philadelphia. Although either could be true, let me explain.

Terry ( or Tito as he prefers to be called honoring his father) is a person driven by his heart and his character and not by his ego. He understands the gift he has been given to play and manage in a game he loves. A game he was around as a little boy. His father gave him the chance to experience the game but did not define his success.

This is why it should be no surprise to anyone but sky nose pointing residents of Boston or New York that Francona hand-picked his return to the game in Cleveland. He knew and had an emotional connection to the city and the management of the Indians. To some, that may seem like a silly reason to take on a team flashing a 68-94 record in front of your face. It obviously is not to Tito.

I have personally seen and heard plenty this spring about Francona, and this, coupled with what I just explained, is why I think he is an elite manager. His success as a manager is far from over. That is the way it is with those rare few.

Let’s briefly look at some things we know about Tito. First, until the season he left, he held together a team of young players and star veterans that crushed much of the competition and outcompeted the rest. He handled more outsized egos and quirky personalities than some managers see in a lifetime. But the Red Sox, through the good years before the collapse in 2011, played together and played with heart. Francona admitted he lost the team and promptly left. That ability to look in the mirror and not always point a finger comes through in his actions as a manager.

Francona has shown this spring on multiple occasions that he is willing to tell players where they stand early and make decisive moves. Some positive and some negative. On the positive side as new starter Bret Myers struggled early, Tito pulled him aside and assured him a spot in the rotation in return for him relaxing and doing what it took for him to get ready for the season. If it worked, only time will tell. Another when Masterson struggled in inning one Sunday, he pulled him aside to help Masterson focus his energies in the right direction. I have no idea what was said, but I did see the result. Four strong innings followed.

On the negative side, after what I detailed last night as a performance confirming he was not ready, Francona pulled Matt Capps into the office and told him it wouldn’t work right now. The cards were left in Capps hands to decide to accept a minor league assignment. I believe a similar discussion was made with Dice-K. Although these are not the kind of discussions the players want to hear, they are ones that build respect and trust.

As Indian fans have witnessed, the roster was enhanced and upgraded to an exciting group after Tito was hired. Holes were plugged with quality in most cases (outfield /bullpen) and silly putty in others (starting pitching). But no one can deny the 2013 Tribe is dramatically improved. Now I think the credit has gone a bit far citing “The Francona Effect”, but his influence has been all over these changes. Antonetti and Dolan have made the moves, but without trust in Francona they would have thought long and hard about making them. Plus, players would be more reluctant to come here.

Often Francona is mentioned as a “player’s manager”. I think there is a great deal of misconception about this term. A player’s manager does not necessarily always complement the players or only give positive reinforcement. A true “player’s manager”, which I think does describe Francona, is one with the ability to relate on a player’s level and be honest and clear about where the player stands with the team. Better yet, one that makes it clear to the player as early as possible where they stand. If a manager always complements a player and then simply “cuts him”, there is an immediate distrust built between not only that player and the manager but other players and the manager once this is revealed. That may not translate to problems at first, but it inevitably does result in problems with players. I think Tito is clearly showing the players very early that he will be honest and let them know when they do or do not fit into the team’s plans.

The final piece of being a true elite manager is the ability to make the players think that they are even better than their talent would predict. This characteristic is the only one I am not certain Francona possesses. This team, in contrast to the many “stacked” teams in Boston, will be a great test of that skill. My hunch is that Francona will clearly reveal his talent in this area as the season progresses. As much as I hated Sparky Anderson (because for a time I was an Indians fan residing in Cincinnati), I always admired his ability to believe in his players even when they were beginning to doubt themselves. He was often a terrible “in-game” manager, but his teams won despite that in part because of his skill at bringing the best out of his team.

It is not by chance that I have not once mentioned in this blog about whether he knows to bunt in this situation or steal in another. I didn’t even mention the ability to know when to pull a pitcher from a game. Because, by it’s very nature, a baseball manager is a manager of men more than a manager of each game situation. I doubt Tito will be “outmanaged” often, but his other skills are what set him apart.

So, it is for all these reasons (and a few more not mentioned), that I honestly believe that Terry (Tito) Francona is one of a select few elite managers in baseball. It isn’t enough by itself to make the Cleveland Indians winners in 2013, but it certainly won’t hurt.

Well we may not know yet if the major league roster can make late inning comebacks but the young bucks for the Indians (with invitees) have roared back twice in two days. Nice to watch but relatively unimportant in the big scheme of things.

More importantly Masterson was pelted with rocket shots in the first inning but recovered nicely. Analyzing his performance with more aplomb reveals a first inning of misplaced fastballs mixed with nothing off speed. From the second inning on he had better command and enough off speed to keep the same hitters off balance that rocked him in the first. I wondered if the plan was to only bring the heat in inning one and throw more off speed later.  But it was clear manager Francona had a lot to say to him after that inning. Terry looked to be giving positive advice and support. Maybe what he said worked. In any case, Masterson saved the outing with his performance after the first.

Cleveland winners today:

Tyler Naquin who ran like a race horse with blinders on out of the batters box to leg out a bouncer that had already safely deflected off the shortstops glove into left field. Nice job impressing the fans and the manager with that one!

Brian Shaw with two solid innings out of the pen to end the game in a tie. He looked good doing it as well with a good fastball and timely off speed pitches.

Losers:

Matt Caps who simply doesn’t look ready coming back from shoulder problems. Stuff is there pretty much but command is not. I would love to hide him in the minors for a month or so because I think he could help us as his command sharpens.